Trainer expects brighter days ahead for Mine That Bird

Horseracing Betting Lines

07/05/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eight months away from racing competition proved too much for 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird to overcome in his first start of 2010. The four-year-old gelding finished a disappointing eighth in Sunday's Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs.

"His first start back wasn't a successful one," noted trainer D. Wayne Lukas, "but I thought he would handle the turf a lot better than what he did. He didn't handle it that well."

Lukas, who took over as Mine That Bird's trainer from Chip Woolley, was forced to start the gelding in the turf stakes after an allowance race at Churchill failed to fill. The one-mile July 4th stakes was won by Tizdejavu in pacesetting style.

Lukas had been extremely pleased with Mine That Bird's workouts leading to the gelding's first race since November's ninth-place result in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park behind Zenyatta.

"He was training too forwardly to have him that far back," Lukas said, "but he finished up and got a little more comfortable the last three-eighths. I think it put us in a position to do something better."

Mine That Bird, with regular rider Calvin Borel in the saddle, was racing last for much of the race. He put on a small rally coming off the final turn to get up for eighth in the 14 horse field.

"He was struggling so much," Borel commented. "He kept moving back and forth, back and forth, switching leads. We will see a different horse after this, a totally different horse. He came back real good, jogging good. He was perfect, the horse is doing good. I'm telling you, get him on the dirt and you'll see a different horse."

Mine That Bird has not won since his surprise victory in last year's Run for the Roses as a 50-1 longhsot. His best race since the win was two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes when he rallied to get within a length of Rachel Alexandra.

Lukas has been saying all along that the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga on Saturday, August 7 is the immediate goal for the four-year-old.

"I'm not discouraged that I can get him where I want him," Lukas said on Sunday. "I don't think we are going to the Arlington Million. The Whitney is our goal. If we could have gotten that allowance race to go, I think it would have been a different story. I didn't want to ship and we took a shot. It is what it is. I feel very comfortable in the mornings with what I see and we'll show up in the Whitney."

The expected favorite in the Whitney is leading four-year-old colt Quality Road. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Quality Road is perfect in three starts this year, coming out on top in the Hal's Hope Stakes, Donn Handicap and the Met Mile.

Mine That Bird needs a sharp upgrade if his connections expect to capture the Whitney. As a gelding, the only way for him to make money in the future is to race... and win.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.