Rapids aim to continue Independence Day dominance

Soccer Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Fire returns to Major League Soccer action for the first time in three weeks on Saturday when the club travels to Dick's Sporting Goods Park to meet the Colorado Rapids.

Chicago has been busy with its participation in the SuperLiga for the past few weeks, and although they were successful in advancing to the semifinals of the competition, not a lot has gone right for the club in league play recently.

The Fire has lost its last three games in MLS, dropping the club to fourth in the Eastern Conference, although they are still only two points back of East leaders D.C. United.

Head coach Denis Hamlett's side was also bounced from the U.S. Open Cup this past Tuesday, losing 1-0 to a USL2 side, the Wilmington Hammerheads.

The loss is the fifth in seven games in all competitions for the Fire, but things don't figure to get much easier on Saturday against the Rapids.

Colorado will be hosting a game on Independence Day for the 14th time, and judging by their 11-1-1 all-time record on the nation's birthday, Chicago had better be in top form.

The Rapids had their eight-game unbeaten streak snapped last time out in a 3-0 defeat at Seattle, but head coach Gary Smith believes that his team simply did not make the most of its chances.

"Seattle had seven shots and hit the target four times. We had six shots and hit the target twice," Smith said. "We missed a penalty at a very, very important time and we come in at 1-1 and are in the game. It still gives a nice foothold into the game. We never really took advantage of our possessions and opportunities."

Colorado enters Saturday's match in fourth place in the Western Conference, seven points back of leaders Houston, but the club will be missing a pair of key players due to international duty.

The CONCACAF Gold Cup will rob a number of teams of important contributors, and the Rapids are no exception.

The club will be missing midfielder Colin Clark and striker Omar Cummings, who have combined for nine goals and 11 assists so far this season, while leading scorer Conor Casey, who missed the team's past few games because of the Confederations Cup, could also be in action for the United States at some point during the tournament.

Chicago is without two players of their own due to international duty as defender Gonzalo Segares and midfielder Logan Pause will miss Saturday's match.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.