Pitt, Gibbs shooting for more in NCAA tournament

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/18/2010 -

PITTSBURGH (AP) -Ashton Gibbs glanced at the statistics sheet following Pittsburgh's 50-45 loss to Notre Dame in the Big East tournament and didn't believe what he saw.

The Panthers, forced into a slow-paced game by the Fighting Irish's deliberate offense, scored only 16 points in the second half.

Another number surprised him, too: Gibbs, Pitt's leading scorer and lone proven outside shooter, took only four shots. Or as many shots as some top shooters manage in four or five possessions.

``I want to take what the defense gives me, and I took four shots. It's something that I did - and we lost,'' Gibbs said.

In a season that began with coach Jamie Dixon re-emphasizing the importance of playing don't-give-them-a-step defense, the third-seeded Panthers' inconsistent offense might be their biggest worry heading into Friday's NCAA West Regional game against 14th-seeded Oakland (26-8) in Milwaukee.

While the Panthers are among college basketball's biggest overachievers, winning 24 games after being picked to finish ninth in the Big East Conference, they've regressed offensively since last season.

They allow an average of only 61.4 points per game, but their scoring average is down nearly 10 points per game - from 77.8 to 68.1. They've been held to 66 points or fewer in eight of their last 15 games, a slump that has forced them to play excellent defense merely to stay in games.

Gibbs is a concern, too. After scoring 20 or more points three times in a four-game span from Feb. 8-21, he has been held to 13 points or fewer in four of his last five games and five of his last seven.

It's difficult to have a big game when a player is getting only four shots.

``I'm looking at how I can get myself more open - that wasn't a regular routine for me during the season - but at the same time, I'm going to take what the defense gives me and not try to force anything,'' Gibbs said. ``My team has been doing a great job of finding me open spots and screening for me, now it's my turn to get away from my man and get as open a shot as I can.''

Pitt senior Jermaine Dixon suggested there was another reason for Pitt's inability to score against Notre Dame.

``Notre Dame slowed the game down big time, but when we got shots, we took quick shots,'' he said. ``They were holding the ball for 30, 35 seconds. We've got to take better shots.''

Gibbs needs to take more shots, if only because he understands what can happen if Pitt keeps struggling for points.

This is Pitt's ninth consecutive appearance in the NCAA tournament, yet the Panthers have advanced past the round of 16 only once since 2002 - losing to Villanova 78-76 in a regional final last season.

``Anybody can be beaten at any given time,'' Gibbs said before the Panthers left Wednesday for Milwaukee. ``Being in the NCAA tournament is something you've got to cherish. We have a good seeding now, and it's our turn to take advantage of it.''

Jamie Dixon likes that Pitt beat Marquette at Milwaukee's Bradley Center only last month, since that's where the Panthers play Friday - and, if they win, where they will play Sunday against sixth-seeded Xavier or 11th-seeded Minnesota. The Panthers beat Xavier 60-55 in a regional semifinal last season.

Gilbert Brown, one of only three current Pitt players who played substantial roles in the tournament last season, also isn't scoring consistently. His scoring totals over his last 12 games: 25 points, 0, 23, 6, 16, 5, 16, 3, 17, 0, 19, 3. The 5-point game was at Marquette.

Based on his pattern, at least Brown is due for a big game against Oakland.

``If we can maintain our focus, and just go out there and execute like we're supposed to, we should be fine in these first couple of games, even though I know they're going to be tough ones,'' Brown said. ``You see the potential games that you could play (later), but your main objective is to focus on the first game.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.