Cardinals attempt to rebound against Braves

Baseball Betting Lines

07/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After receiving a double dose of bad news on Thursday, the St. Louis Cardinals will try to get back on their feet when the 2006 world champs continue a four-game series with the Atlanta Braves tonight at Turner Field.

The Cardinals learned yesterday that ace pitcher Chris Carpenter needs to undergo Tommy John surgery on his troublesome elbow and will miss the remainder of this season, as well as a significant portion of 2008. St. Louis then proceeded to get smoked by the Braves in the opener of this weekend set.

Atlanta scored 10 times over the first four innings en route to an easy 10-1 victory. Andruw Jones and Matt Diaz each homered and knocked in three runs, with Diaz ended 3-for-4 on the evening and Jones scoring three times.

Chipper Jones added a pair of hits and three runs scored to help the Braves rebound from an embarrassing three-game home sweep by Cincinnati. Jeff Francoeur contributed two hits and two RBI to the winning effort.

Julio Franco delivered a two-run single in the ageless veteran's first game back in a Braves uniform. The 48-year-old, who played for Atlanta from 2001-05, had been released by the Mets earlier this month.

Tim Hudson (10-5) cruised to his 10th victory of 2007 by limiting St. Louis to a run on five hits over seven innings of work.

Cardinals starter Mike Maroth (0-3) wasn't nearly as effective, as the lefty was battered for 10 runs and 11 hits in five innings.

St. Louis, which had won three of four prior to Thursday's rout, was without third baseman Scott Rolen (shoulder) for a second consecutive game. However, center fielder Jim Edmonds was activated from the disabled list and went 1- for-3 in his first action since June 15.

The Cardinals turn to ex-Braves farmhand Adam Wainwright tonight in hopes of getting back on track. The right-hander was Atlanta's first-round choice in the 2000 draft and pitched in the Braves system until being dealt to the Cardinals in December, 2003 as part of the trade that landed J.D. Drew in Atlanta.

Wainwright, a native of Brunswick, Georgia, will be making his first career start versus the Braves. He did throw four scoreless innings over three relief appearances against Atlanta as a rookie last season.

The 25-year-old has also been pitching very well as of late. Wainwright fired seven shutout innings to defeat the Phillies last Sunday and is 3-1 with a 3.24 earned run average over his four most recent starts.

Atlanta counters with a Georgia product of its own in Chuck James, who sports an identical 8-7 season record as Wainwright and is also in the midst of a good recent stretch.

James has yielded just two runs in 17 2/3 innings over his last three starts. The left-hander recorded back-to-back road wins over the Marlins and Dodgers to close out his first half, then came through with six shutout innings against Pittsburgh last Saturday.

The 25-year-old allowed just two hits and three walks in that game but did not factor in the decision of Atlanta's 5-4 win.

James' lone career appearance against the Cardinals came on July 5, 2006 at Turner Field. He wound up with the victory after giving up four runs over six innings of a 14-4 Atlanta triumph.

Thursday's contest was the first 2007 meeting between these teams. Atlanta won four of six matchups with St. Louis last season and is 5-1 in its last six games against the Cardinals at Turner Field.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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