Can favored Blackhawks come through with Cup?

Hockey Betting Lines

05/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sometimes a team has to be very bad before it can climb to the top of the mountain. Look at the Pittsburgh Penguins. They finished last or next-to-last in the two seasons surrounding the lockout and by 2008 were representing the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. Obviously selecting Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby in back-to-back drafts accelerated the process, but sometimes it doesn't hurt to rebuild from the bottom up.

The Chicago Blackhawks were in the same boat as Pittsburgh, finishing in last place in the Western Conference in the 2003-04 season. However, unlike the Penguins, they still finished last in the Central Division three years later.

The Blackhawks missed the playoffs again the following campaign, but along the way drafted Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane to put them in position to challenge for Lord Stanley's Cup as the decade came to an end.

Many experts predicted great things this season, after Chicago reached the Western Conference Finals in 2008-09, and they were right. By the end of the Olympic break, the Blackhawks were the 2-1 favorites to represent the West in the Stanley Cup Finals.

They failed to get the conference's number one seed over San Jose, but still finished the regular season with 112 points, only one point behind the Sharks. They also ranked third in the league in scoring with 271 goals and fifth in goals allowed at 209.

After disposing Nashville, Vancouver and San Jose in the postseason, the Blackhawks have home ice vs. Philadelphia in the Stanley Cup Finals. However, they are only 5-3 at United Center in the postseason. That statistic could come back to haunt them if faced with a must-win situation in a possible game seven.

THE EASTERN CONFERENCE REPRESENTATIVE

Chicago has earned the right to be favored vs. Philadelphia, but favorites don't always hoist the Cup. Just ask the Detroit Red Wings who were beaten just last season by the Penguins.

Balanced scoring and the addition of Chris Pronger catapulted the Flyers from first-round losers in 2009 to Cup finalists in 2010. In fact, many prognosticators, including yours truly, predicted the Flyers to represent the Eastern Conference before the season began.

However, multiple goalie injuries and uninspired play plagued the club for most of the year. So much so that making the playoffs was not even a foregone conclusion. The oddsmakers even labeled them the sixth choice at 12-1 to win the East heading into March.

On the verge of being left out of the postseason, the Flyers rallied for a shootout victory over the Rangers on the final day of the regular season, securing the seventh-seed and a date with the New Jersey Devils.

Even though they were heavy underdogs, the Flyers were a confident bunch, especially since they had tremendous regular season success vs. New Jersey, beating Martin Brodeur and the Devils five of the six meetings. Philadelphia proceeded to win the series in five games.

The Flyers then faced Boston due to Montreal's upset of Washington.

Down three games to none, they bounced back with a miraculous comeback nailing the seventh game 4-3 after trailing 3-0. From there, they made easy work of the Canadiens, winning that series in five.

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

Chicago has been installed as the heavy favorite to win the Stanley Cup. In fact, bettors must wager $250 to win $100 if they pick Chicago to win the series.

On the surface, that line looks way too high but considering where each team was seeded in postseason play, it's obvious which club has the superior profile. In addition, the Flyers have yet to play a team with such a high- powered offense as Chicago. The Devils, Bruins and Canadiens were all offensively-challenged and Philadelphia took advantage by allowing just 36 goals in only 17 games.

Taking on the Blackhawks will be an entirely new confrontation. Joel Quenneville's squad scored four goals or more in eight of their last 12 "second season" contests. Will Flyers goalie Michael Leighton, who has been outstanding in the postseason, be able to withstand the pressure?

He did beat Chicago in the only meeting this year, saving 39 of 41 shots in a 3-2 home win on March 13. That was the contest in which Chris Pronger scored the game-winning goal with only three seconds remaining.

Both Chicago (Duncan Keith) and Philadelphia (Pronger) have a rock on defense, capable of seeing 30 minutes of action per game. The Blackhawks mostly played five defensemen against San Jose as Jordan Hendry saw fewer than 10 minutes in all four matchups. On the other side, Ryan Parent and Lukas Krajicek played a little over 20 minutes combined in the final two Eastern Conference Final games.

Offensively, each team has three scoring lines capable of putting pucks in the net. Six Chicago players have scored at least four playoff goals, and Marian Hossa, who has only two, can break out at any time. Seven different Flyers have scored at least four as well, while two more players have three.

Both squads have excellent special teams so it's hard to give either side the edge on the power play.

In between the pipes, both Antti Niemi and Michael Leighton have been outstanding in the postseason.

Niemi is 12-4 with a 2.33 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage. He was instrumental in holding the Sharks to just seven goals in four games - twice facing 45 shots or more.

Leighton, since coming in to replace the injured Brian Boucher, has allowed only 11 goals in seven-plus games for a 1.45 GAA and a spectacular .948 save percentage. But once again, those contests came against the likes of Boston and Montreal.

For the Flyers to upset Chicago they need their defense to help out Leighton by blocking as many shots as possible and giving him square looks on the shooters. Philadelphia will not be able to win the high-scoring games.

For the Blackhawks to be successful, they must wear down Philadelphia's defense with the likes of Dustin Byfuglien, Troy Brouwer and Ben Eager throwing their weight around in the offensive zone.

Both teams are well-coached, so don't expect either squad to show signs of cracking under the pressure.

Four of the last six Stanley Cup Finals have been stretched to seven games and this one should be no different. Since Philadelphia is the heavy underdog, go with the Flyers to come away with a 3-2 victory in the seventh and final game, bringing the Stanley Cup back to Broad Street for the first time since 1975.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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