07/03/2009 - Oceanport, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two days after Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem arrived at Monmouth Park for next month's Haskell Invitational. Belmont Stakes champ Summer Bird settled into his stall at the Jersey shore track.
With the arrival of Summer Bird and Papa Clem, the three projected favorites for the track's marquee race are now stabled here. Illinois Derby winner Musket Man is based at Monmouth Park.
Trained by Tim Ice, Summer Bird arrived by van from Louisiana early Friday morning. Ice accompanied the colt from Louisiana Downs with a stopover at Churchill Downs. A sleepy Ice said the three-year-old handled the trip better than the trainer.
"I'm tired, but he got off the van full of himself at Churchill," noted Ice, "and he was full of himself when we got here. He shipped great. I just want to take a nap.
"He'll be out on the track to train on Saturday and Sunday, and if everything's okay with him, he'll work on Monday. He's due for a work. After that, I'll get him on a Sunday work rotation. I like to work him a week before a race, and the Haskell is on a Sunday, so that will be his work day after this week."
Summer Bird, 11-1 in the Belmont Stakes, has two wins in five starts this year for $723,040. He was third to Papa Clem in the Arkansas Derby and sixth in the Kentucky Derby.
Owned and bred by Drs. K.K. and V. Devi Jayaraman, Summer Bird will be ridden in the $1 million Haskell by three-time Eclipse Award winner Kent Desormeaux. The pair combined to capture the Belmont Stakes and the jockey won last year's Haskell with Big Brown.
Papa Clem will tune-up for the Haskell with a start in the track's Long Branch Stakes on Saturday, July 11. Local favorite Musket Man is training up to the Haskell on Sunday, August 2.
<< Wenger: Adebayor going nowhere
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arsene Wenger is confident that Emmanuel
Adebayor will start the new season as part of his Arsenal squad.
The Togo striker has been mentioned as a possible transfer target for AC Milan
for the second ye
<< Pavlyuchenko unsure over Spurs future
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tottenham striker Roman Pavlyuchenko is
seeking talks over his future when he returns for the start of preseason
training.
Pavlyuchenko scored 14 goals in 32 games in his first season in the Pr
<< Rapids aim to continue Independence Day dominance
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Fire returns to Major League
Soccer action for the first time in three weeks on Saturday when the club
travels to Dick's Sporting Goods Park to meet the Colorado Rapids.
Chicago has been
<< Mariners activate P Kelley off DL
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners activated rookie reliever
Shawn Kelley from the 15-day disabled list on Friday.
Kelley has been sidelined since May 6 with a strained oblique muscle in his
left side. The right-han
Diao close to signing new Stoke deal >>
Stoke-on-Trent, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stoke City midfielder Salif Diao is
close to agreeing a new contract to remain at the Britannia Stadium.
The 32-year-old Senegal international is out of contract and had been
interesting se
Jackson announces return to Lakers bench >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Lakers head coach Phil
Jackson, fresh off a record 10th NBA Championship as a coach, announced on
Friday he will return to the bench next year for a 10th season in LA and 19th
as an N
Pens bring back Fedotenko for one more year >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins signed forward
Ruslan Fedotenko to a one-year contract on Friday.
The 30-year-old tallied 16 times with 39 points in 65 regular-season games for
Pittsburgh last season a
Primus gets new deal from Pompey >>
Portsmouth, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defender Linvoy Primus will extend his
nine-year association with Portsmouth after agreeing to a new 12-month
contract.
The 35-year-old defender has been at Fratton Park since 2000 and has
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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